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A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

By |2023-01-03T08:28:19+00:00January 3rd, 2023|

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks. 

The upcoming El Niño

Temperatures are currently suppressed as we’re in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post.  

The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.

Chances are that we’ll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.
[ image adapted from NOAA, from earlier post ]
Sunspots

The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots. The number of sunspots is forecast to reach a peak in July 2025 and recent numbers are higher than expected, as illustrated by the image on the right, from NOAA.

 

An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C. Recent numbers of sunspots have been high. This confirms the study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference.


Joint impact of El Niño and sunspots

In conclusion, the joint impact of a strong El Niño and high sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.65°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature to rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026.

Further developments and feedbacks

A combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise. 
An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.
Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right. Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year. 
Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which shows that global sea ice extent was 4.6 million km² on January 2, 2023. 

The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres. 
Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that – when present – consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as the (currently accelerating) rise of greenhouse gas emissions, falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires. 

As said, these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NASA – La Niña Times Three

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center – ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

• Sunspots

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html

• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4

• Tropicaltidbits.comhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Jet Stream

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

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Global Warming, Sea-Ice Loss Intensify Polar Bear Decline

By |2021-05-13T15:34:35+01:00January 28th, 2021|

The unabated global warming and the melting Arctic sea ice can result in the extinction of Polar years in the near-century, say the scientists. Meanwhile, studies show that all the 19 subpopulations of polar bears have experienced ice loss over the current times.

If not taken charge, the situation would worsen, forcing the animals to walk towards the lands and away from their food supplies. Whereafter, prolonged fasting and mothers failing to nurse their cubs will result in drastic declines in reproduction and survival of the polar bears.

Impact of global warming on polar bears

Global warming has led to the rise in the Arctic’s temperature, which is twice as fast as the global average. And as a result of this, the sea ice cover is seen diluting by four percent every decade.

Following a 2018 study providing the metabolic analysis of the species, it is found that the animals’ caloric needs are 60 percent greater than the one formerly believed. And they burn out nearly 12,325 calories every day. In order to sustain this need, their diet consists of calorie-rich food as that of ringed and bearded seals, whose population is likewise declining with the loss of sea ice.

When the land-fast sea ice melts, it compels polar bears back to the lands where they don’t get any access to seals. In the seals’ scarcity, the animals are known to hunt for caribou and whale carcasses washed ashore, which does not fulfill their caloric needs. Hereafter the polar bears begin to fast, struggling to maintain a healthy weight for their survival.

The disturbing factors

The consequences of global warming and conditions of sea ice levels are different in different Arctic regions. And not all polar bear populations are to respond the same way. In the Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort Sea, the past or present decline in the Polar bear populations is directly associated with the loss of sea-ice. 

However, moving elsewhere, other factors including shipping, hunting, tourism, oil and gas activities, prey availability tends to determine the lesser or greater extents affecting the subpopulation trends. This further complicates the picture and calls for a matter of concern. 

Ways to reduce the impact of global warming on polar bears

There’s a lot we can contribute to saving polar bears and other endangered species from extinction. One of the significant causes of intense sea-ice loss and polar bear decline is global warming. Hence the solution lies in curtailing the abruptly rising temperature of the earth.

Concerning this, here are a few steps you can take to help reduce global warming:

  • Equip your home with renewable energy resources.
  • Opt for a fuel-efficient vehicle or better encourage carpooling and use of public transports.
  • Recycle waste and adopt responsible consumption practices.
  • Promote better use of natural resources, preventing deforestation, and massive use of fossil fuels.

The most important factor to work upon in order to improve the long-term survival of polar bear populations is reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. This is also to stabilize the Arctic sea ice levels to secure the polar bear habitats.

The post Global Warming, Sea-Ice Loss Intensify Polar Bear Decline appeared first on Nature Talkies – We Talk about Nature.

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Climate Change: How Did We End Up Here?

By |2021-05-13T15:34:51+01:00December 15th, 2020|

If we take our eyes off of the money and power for a moment, we are exposed to bigger issues that we have been ignoring for a long while now. Yes, we are talking about climate change. 

It is probably the only matter that humans, as a race, should be really concerned about. After all, it could take our lives much earlier than we thought. 

The primary reason why climate change is an alarming cause is our negligence and exploitative nature. Let’s have a closer look at how we ended up here. 

The emissions of Greenhouse Gases

It is a widely known fact that greenhouse gases are responsible for trapping heat in the environment. Scientists discovered this in the 1800s itself. While there are many greenhouse gases, Carbon Dioxide is single-handedly accountable for shooting up global warming by a disturbing percentage. 

If we look at carbon dioxide emissions because of human activities from all across the world, we will all drop our jaws. They increased by a whopping 400 percent since the 1950s. This is why global warming is not to be taken lightly. 

If you think about some 800,000 years ago, you will see a pattern of Earth’s natural climate cycle. This all happened between warmer interglacial periods and the ice ages. The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago, and the average temperature across the globe increased by 3 degrees Celsius to 8 degrees Celsius. This happened during a period of 10,000 years. 

The rises in temperature that occurred during the last 200 years have a direct connection to the increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Everything is interconnected, and human greed is to be blamed. 

Solar influences

When talking about Climate Change, it would be unfair not to include the main source of all heat on our Planet Earth. The closest Star, The center of the Solar System; The Sun. We cannot just rule out the possibility that even the slightest change in its output heat and light can affect the terrestrial ecosystems in significant ways. The light and heat coming from the Sun is called Solar Irradiance and is highly responsible for Climate Change lately. 

The sun goes through 11-year cycles of activity when it goes from stormy to quiet and then back to the solar storms again. When it’s stormy, Scientists like Thomas Woods at NASA have been using SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiments) to measure the most significant storms on the Sun. They have stated, “The fluctuations in the solar cycle impact Earth’s global temperature by about 0.1 degree Celsius, slightly hotter during solar maximum and cooler during solar minimum.”

While we have tried our best to walk you through the main reasons behind climate change, there are always more explanations. The best way to stay informed and safe is by reading about the observations that scientists have made.

The post Climate Change: How Did We End Up Here? appeared first on Nature Talkies – We Talk about Nature.

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