XBloggerLinkedIn

David Shepherd

About David Shepherd

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far David Shepherd has created 60 blog entries.

US Govt announces shock withdrawal from WHO

By |2025-01-21T12:04:36+00:00January 21st, 2025|

US Govt announces shock withdrawal from WHO.

The United States has announced its official withdrawal from the World Health Organisation (WHO), igniting heated debate about the ramifications for global health governance. The decision, which stemmed from critiques of the organization’s handling of significant health emergencies and potential bias, has sparked conflicting reactions domestically and internationally.

The Basis for Withdrawal

The U.S. government has long expressed dissatisfaction with the WHO, accusing it of inefficiency, mismanagement, and undue influence from certain member states, particularly China. Here are the main criticisms cited:

  1. Pandemic Response Failures: Critics argue that the WHO’s initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic was too slow, leading to widespread global outbreaks that could have been forecast and acted upon much earlier. Reports allege that the organization relied too heavily on information from China, failing to conduct independent investigations into the virus’ origins.
  2. Lack of Transparency: Some U.S. officials have accused the WHO of a lack of transparency in its decision-making processes and funding allocations, raising concerns about accountability.
  3. Financial Contributions and Influence: The United States has historically been the largest contributor to the WHO’s budget. Critics claim that despite significant financial support, U.S. concerns are not adequately addressed within the organization’s policies and actions.
  4. Chronic Bureaucracy: Opponents of the WHO argue that it is plagued by excessive bureaucracy, which hampers its ability to respond swiftly and effectively to global health emergencies.

Implications of Withdrawal

The withdrawal raises questions about the future of international health collaboration. The U.S. plays a crucial role in funding and supporting global health initiatives, and its absence could create a leadership vacuum within the WHO. Key concerns include:

  • Funding Gaps: The U.S. contributes approximately 15% of the WHO’s budget. Its withdrawal could jeopardize vital programs, particularly in low-income countries reliant on WHO support.
  • Weakened Pandemic Preparedness: Critics warn that reduced U.S. involvement in the WHO could undermine global efforts to prepare for and respond to future pandemics.
  • Geopolitical Ramifications: The decision could shift the balance of power within the WHO, potentially increasing the influence of other major contributors like China.

Reactions to the Decision

The withdrawal has drawn mixed reactions. Supporters argue that the U.S. can redirect its resources toward bilateral and independent health initiatives, bypassing what they view as an ineffective organization. “The United States can better address global health challenges by working directly with allies and partners,” said Dr. Jane Hamilton, a public health expert.

Opponents, however, warn that this move could isolate the U.S. on the global stage and weaken international efforts to combat shared health challenges. “Abandoning the WHO during a pandemic sends the wrong message about global solidarity,” stated Dr. Maria Alvarez of the Global Health Network.

Moving Forward

The United States government has announced initiatives to build alternate frameworks for global health partnership. However, the long-term consequences of its exit from the WHO remain unknown. As the world deals with interrelated health issues, the need for coordinated response has never been higher.

Sources

Read More

Victory for Save Windermere: United Utilities Loses Appeal

By |2025-01-21T12:41:19+00:00January 20th, 2025|

Victory for Save Windermere: United Utilities Loses Appeal

The fight to protect Windermere, England’s largest lake, has reached a significant milestone. Campaigners have declared victory after United Utilities’ (UU) dropped its appeals to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) after arguing previously that the ICO was incorrect in directing them to give crucial environmental data to the campaign. This ruling marks a watershed milestone in the ongoing battle to preserve the ecological health of Windermere, a treasured natural landmark and critical ecosystem.

Victory for Save Windermere United Utilities Loses Appeal

The beauty of Lake Windermere

Background: Windermere Under Threat

Windermere has long been a symbol of natural beauty, drawing millions of people each year to the heart of the Lake District. However, its beautiful waters have become increasingly polluted, owing primarily to agricultural runoff, untreated sewage, and wastewater mismanagement by big utilities such as UU.

The issue received national attention in recent years after environmental groups and local communities raised concerns about declining water quality. Campaigners have accused UU of contributing to pollution by dumping untreated sewage into the lake and neighbouring waterways. This has resulted in algae blooms, dwindling fish populations, and considerable biodiversity loss for the lake.

The Information Battle

The debate erupted when protestors demanded more information from UU over the volume and frequency of sewage discharges into Windermere. UU first objected, claiming commercial sensitivity and possible reputational loss. This rejection spurred campaigners to file a lawsuit with the ICO, alleging that the public had a right to know about actions affecting their environment.

In November 2024, the ICO found in favour of the campaigners and ordered UU to give the sought material. However, UU filed an appeal to overturn the verdict, extending the fight for openness.

The Landmark Ruling

In January 2025, the ICO upheld its original verdict and denied UU’s appeal. The Court emphasised the need of public access to environmental data, particularly for activities that may affect ecosystems and public health. “The public interest in transparency outweighs any commercial concerns raised by the utility company,” the ICO wrote in its ruling.

This victory sets a legal precedent, strengthening the public’s right to demand accountability from corporations impacting the environment. Campaigners celebrated the decision as a crucial step toward holding UU accountable for its environmental responsibilities.

Broader Implications

The ruling has broader implications beyond Windermere. It sends a clear message to utility companies across the UK: environmental transparency is non-negotiable. Experts suggest that this case could inspire similar challenges in other regions facing water pollution crises.

Dr. Lucy Bennett, an environmental scientist at Lancaster University, remarked, “This decision empowers communities to demand accountability and ensures that corporations can no longer hide behind claims of commercial sensitivity when it comes to environmental harm.”

Community and Campaigner Reactions

Local campaign groups, such as Friends of Windermere and Save Windermere, hailed the ruling as a victory for grassroots activism. “This is a win for everyone who values Windermere and wants to see it preserved for future generations,” said Peter Wallace, a spokesperson for Save Windermere.

The ruling also reignited calls for UU to invest in upgrading its infrastructure to prevent future pollution incidents. Campaigners are urging the utility giant to prioritize environmental protection over profits.

United Utilities Responds

In response to the ruling, UU issued a statement expressing disappointment but pledged to comply with the ICO’s decision. “While we respect the ruling, we remain committed to balancing transparency with the need to protect our business interests. We will continue working toward improving our environmental practices,” the statement read.

Critics, however, argue that UU’s response falls short of addressing the core issues. They demand concrete actions to reduce sewage discharges and restore Windermere’s ecological balance.

Future Challenges and Opportunities

While the ICO’s decision represents a significant victory, the fight to save Windermere is far from over. Campaigners are now focusing on:

  • Monitoring UU’s Compliance: Ensuring that the released data leads to actionable change.
  • Policy Advocacy: Pushing for stricter regulations on wastewater management and increased funding for environmental restoration projects.
  • Community Engagement: Raising awareness and mobilizing public support to maintain pressure on polluters and policymakers.

The case also highlights the importance of technological innovation in tackling water pollution. From real-time water quality monitoring systems to advanced wastewater treatment technologies, solutions exist to address these challenges effectively.

Conclusion

The ICO’s decision against United Utilities signals a watershed moment in the struggle to preserve Windermere. It emphasises the strength of grassroots activism and the need for transparency when dealing with environmental challenges. As campaigners celebrate their hard-won success, the bigger message is clear: safeguarding our natural resources necessitates community action, responsibility, and a steadfast commitment to environmental stewardship.

Sources

Read More

California Fires – How Climate Change is Supercharging Santa Ana Winds

By |2025-01-21T12:50:36+00:00January 19th, 2025|

California Fires – How Climate Change is Supercharging Santa Ana Winds

California is once again gripped by deadly wildfires, which have scorched thousands of acres and threatened cities. The annual occurrence of these fires is frequently attributed to the Santa Ana winds, but experts now point to climate change as a significant component that is exacerbating the severity and frequency.

The Santa Ana Winds

Santa Ana winds are a natural weather occurrence. These dry, gusty winds begin inland and funnel over mountain passes to coastal regions, picking up speed and drying off vegetation along the way. Historically, strong winds have been a known cause of wildfire activity, fanning flames and propelling fires across landscapes at breakneck speeds.

However, the wildfire season of 2024-2025 has been exceptionally destructive. Winds had gusted up to 70 mph, causing flames to spread quicker than firefighters could control them. Entire neighbourhoods in Southern California have been evacuated, with damage estimates totalling billions of dollars.

The Role of Climate Change

While the Santa Ana winds are a natural occurrence, their impact is being exacerbated by human-induced climate change. Rising global temperatures have led to:

  1. Drier Conditions: Prolonged droughts and higher temperatures have turned California’s vegetation into tinder, creating the perfect fuel for wildfires.
  2. Extended Fire Seasons: The traditional fire season now stretches nearly year-round due to warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns.
  3. Increased Wind Intensity: Some studies suggest that warming temperatures could intensify wind patterns, making the Santa Ana winds even more destructive.

“Climate change is loading the dice in favor of larger, more destructive wildfires,” says Dr. Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania. “It’s not just about the winds; it’s about the conditions those winds encounter.”

Real-World Impact

The recent fires have destroyed ecosystems, displaced thousands of communities, and killed people. For example, the Camp Pendleton Fire has burnt over 100,000 acres and caused more than 20,000 people to evacuate. Wildlife habitats have been destroyed, and air quality has deteriorated throughout the state, affecting millions.

The fires also have a substantial economic impact. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), the state has already spent more than $2 billion on firefighting this season alone.

Solutions and Adaptation

Addressing the dual challenges of the Santa Ana winds and climate change requires a multifaceted approach:

  • Fire-Resistant Infrastructure: Investing in building materials and designs that can withstand wildfires.
  • Forest Management: Implementing controlled burns and vegetation thinning to reduce fuel loads.
  • Climate Action: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the underlying causes of climate change.
  • Improved Forecasting: Leveraging technology to better predict fire conditions and enhance early warning systems.

Conclusion

The California flames of 2024-2025 serve as a stark reminder of the new normal in an era of climate change. While Santa Ana winds have long been a component of the region’s ecosystem, human activity has increased their destructive potential. Urgent action is required to adapt and mitigate these emerging risks.

Sources

Read More

Have We Broken the Jet Stream? Climate Change Fuels Chaos

By |2025-01-21T12:54:43+00:00January 18th, 2025|

Have We Broken the Jet Stream? Climate Change Fuels Chaos

Human-induced climate change has seriously disturbed the North Atlantic jet stream, a fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, according to Madeleine Cuff’s recent research in New Scientist. This disturbance is increasingly being connected to extreme weather occurrences, such as the devastating floods that swept throughout Spain in November 2024.

What is the Jet Stream?

The jet stream is a powerful air current that influences weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. It is driven by temperature differences between the Arctic and the tropics. However, as the Arctic warms at a rate nearly four times faster than the global average, the temperature gradient weakens, causing the jet stream to slow down and meander. This alteration can lock weather systems in place, leading to prolonged extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods.

The Spanish Floods of November 2024

The record rainfall in Spain, which caused catastrophic floods and evacuated hundreds, is a clear example of the jet stream’s destabilisation. The slow-moving weather system that caused the rainfall was linked to a weaker and meandering jet stream, which kept the storm over the region for days.

The Spanish government declared a state of emergency as rivers overflowed and important infrastructure was damaged. The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) stated that the incident was “consistent with predictions of increased extreme weather due to climate change.”

Broader Implications

The impacts of a disrupted jet stream are not confined to Europe. North America, Asia, and other regions are also experiencing unusual and severe weather patterns. For instance:

  1. Heatwaves: The Pacific Northwest saw record-breaking temperatures in the summer of 2024, attributed to a persistent high-pressure system linked to a meandering jet stream.
  2. Droughts: Parts of the Horn of Africa are enduring prolonged dry spells, exacerbating food insecurity.
  3. Winter Storms: The United States experienced intensified snowstorms in early 2025, also tied to jet stream anomalies.

What Can Be Done?

The destabilisation of the jet stream emphasises the importance of solving climate change. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, is critical for preventing further disruptions. Experts advocate for the following measures:

  • Reducing Emissions: Rapid decarbonization of the global economy is essential to curbing Arctic warming.
  • Building Resilience: Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure can help communities adapt to extreme weather events.
  • Improving Forecasting: Enhanced understanding and monitoring of the jet stream can improve weather prediction and disaster preparedness.

Conclusion

The breaking of the jet stream is a powerful reminder of the interconnectedness of the planet’s systems and the profound consequences of human activity. As scientists continue to study these changes, it is clear that urgent action is needed to prevent further climate instability.

Sources

  • Madeleine Cuff, New Scientist: newscientist.com
  • Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET): aemet.es
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): noaa.gov
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): ipcc.ch
Read More

Hino Motors’ Diesel Scandal: $1.6 Billion Fine Over Emissions Fraud

By |2025-01-17T10:40:38+00:00January 17th, 2025|

Hino Motors’ Diesel Scandal: $1.6 Billion Fine Over Emissions Fraud

Toyota’s well-known subsidiary Hino Motors is the most recent automaker to face criticism for pollution violations. The company pleaded guilty to charges of falsifying engine pollution and fuel consumption figures and agreed to pay more than $1.6 billion in penalties. This marks a watershed moment in the global effort to hold corporations accountable for environmental violations.

Years of Deception

The misbehaviour began in 2003 when more than 110,000 diesel engines were sold in violation of US environmental regulations. Court filings reveal that Hino Motors imported non-compliant engines into the US and wilfully provided regulators with fraudulent data. These engines contributed to air pollution and health hazards by emitting nitrogen oxides and particulate matter at quantities well over the permitted limits.

Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim stressed the gravity of the violations in a statement issued by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). “Hino’s actions weakened public confidence and jeopardised air quality protection efforts.” A clear reminder that no business is above the law is provided by this settlement.

Penalties and Probation

Hino Motors will pay $1.6 billion in fines as part of the settlement, and it will be prohibited from importing diesel engines into the United States for five years. To avoid infractions in the future, the business must also put strict compliance mechanisms in place.

Given the seriousness of the case, the fine is among the highest penalties for emissions fraud in automotive history. Along with monetary fines, Hino has promised to improve its environmental compliance procedures and to be completely transparent in its business practices.

Global Implications

The controversy draws attention to more general problems in the auto sector. Regulators throughout the world have been paying more attention to emissions compliance after the Volkswagen “Dieselgate” scandal in 2015. The Hino case emphasises the necessity of more stringent oversight and systematic changes to guarantee businesses follow environmental regulations.

While applauding the settlement, environmentalists emphasise how critical it is to address the underlying causes of such wrongdoing. According to Dr. Samantha Green, an environmental policy specialist at the World Resources Institute, “this is a step forward, but we need more robust mechanisms to prevent fraud and ensure transparency.”

Consumer Trust at Stake

Consumer confidence in Hino Motors and its parent company, Toyota, has also been damaged by the scandal. Retaining trust is essential as the automobile sector transitions to electric and alternative fuel vehicles. Rebuilding confidence will necessitate large investments in clean technologies and public education, according to analysts.

A Wake-Up Call

Hino’s emissions issue serves as a wake-up warning to the worldwide automobile industry. It emphasises the essential need for businesses to prioritise environmental integrity and openness. Moving forward, stricter enforcement of environmental legislation and increased accountability will be required to promote sustainable practices in the business.

Sources

  • AP News: Hino Motors Emissions Fraud Settlement
  • Reuters: Hino Motors Agrees to $1.6 Billion Settlement
  • U.S. Department of Justice Press Release
Read More

Crisis in Northern Ireland: Lough Neagh Faces Algal Menace

By |2025-01-16T09:57:19+00:00January 16th, 2025|

Crisis in Northern Ireland: Lough Neagh Faces Algal Menace

Northern Ireland’s iconic waterways, Lough Neagh and Belfast Lough, are grappling with an unprecedented environmental crisis. Rampant pollution has led to the proliferation of blue-green algae blooms, posing severe risks to public health, aquatic ecosystems, and local livelihoods. The issue has ignited widespread concern, sparking debates about the effectiveness of current mitigation efforts.

The Algae Bloom Threat

Blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, thrive in nutrient-rich environments. In the case of Lough Neagh and Belfast Lough, the primary contributors to nutrient pollution are agricultural runoff and untreated wastewater discharges. Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus from fertilizers and sewage create a fertile breeding ground for these harmful blooms.

These algal blooms produce toxins that can harm humans, pets, and wildlife. Swimming in or ingesting contaminated water can lead to skin irritation, respiratory issues, or gastrointestinal illnesses. Moreover, the algae deplete oxygen levels in water, suffocating fish and other aquatic species. In 2024 alone, several fish die-offs were reported, devastating local fisheries.

Local Communities at Risk

Lough Neagh, the largest freshwater lake in the British Isles, is a vital resource for Northern Ireland. It supplies drinking water to approximately 40% of the population and supports local fishing and tourism industries. Similarly, Belfast Lough serves as a key maritime hub and ecological haven. The pollution crisis threatens these essential functions, impacting both the environment and the economy.

The crisis has also drawn attention to the broader implications of neglecting water quality. Environmental advocacy groups, including Friends of the Earth Northern Ireland, have highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of pollution.

Mitigation Efforts and Challenges

In July 2024, the Northern Ireland Executive approved the Lough Neagh Action Plan. The plan outlines measures to reduce nutrient pollution, including stricter regulations on agricultural runoff and improvements to wastewater treatment facilities. However, critics argue that the plan lacks sufficient funding and enforcement mechanisms to achieve meaningful results.

Dr. Siobhan Jordan, a marine biologist at Queen’s University Belfast, emphasized in a recent interview with the BBC that, “While the action plan is a step in the right direction, it fails to address the urgency of the situation. We need immediate and bold interventions to prevent irreversible damage.”

The Path Forward

Experts advocate for a multi-pronged approach to combat the pollution crisis. This includes:

  1. Enhanced Regulation: Strengthening policies on agricultural practices and waste management to limit nutrient runoff.
  2. Public Awareness: Educating communities about the environmental impact of fertilizers and the importance of sustainable practices.
  3. Infrastructure Investment: Upgrading wastewater treatment facilities to meet modern standards.
  4. Long-Term Monitoring: Establishing robust systems for water quality assessment and enforcement.

The ongoing crisis in Lough Neagh and Belfast Lough underscores the critical need for sustainable environmental policies. It serves as a wake-up call for governments and communities to prioritize the health of natural resources to ensure a sustainable future.

Sources

Read More

Shadow Fleet Risks: Unregulated Oil Tankers Endanger Seas

By |2025-01-15T14:39:23+00:00January 15th, 2025|

Shadow Fleet Risks: Unregulated Oil Tankers Endanger Seas

A growing fleet of unregulated oil tankers, dubbed the “shadow fleet,” is raising alarm across the maritime industry. These ships, often old and non-compliant with international safety standards, are used to transport oil for nations such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to bypass sanctions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has flagged the significant environmental and safety risks posed by these vessels, sparking urgent discussions about tighter oversight.

Environmental Hazards

The shadow fleet’s environmental impact is profound. These aging tankers, often lacking proper maintenance, pose a heightened risk of oil spills. A single spill could devastate marine ecosystems, killing wildlife and disrupting fisheries. According to a 2024 report by the IMO, incidents involving these ships have surged, with poorly conducted ship-to-ship transfers being a key factor. This practice, frequently performed in international waters to evade detection, significantly increases the risk of accidents.

The environmental toll extends beyond spills. Many of these vessels use outdated engines, contributing to excessive greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The IMO’s efforts to regulate maritime emissions through measures such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) are undermined by the shadow fleet’s operations, which often flout such rules.

Threats to Maritime Safety

Safety concerns are equally pressing. Shadow fleet tankers are notorious for employing undertrained crews and skirting essential safety certifications. These factors create dangerous conditions for seafarers, who face a higher likelihood of accidents and fatalities. The lack of oversight also makes these ships prime targets for piracy and other criminal activities.

A January 2025 meeting of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee aims to address these risks. Proposed measures include stricter tracking of ship-to-ship transfers and enhanced enforcement of existing safety and environmental regulations. However, critics argue that such measures may be challenging to implement without robust international cooperation.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The shadow fleet’s activities have broader implications for the global oil market. By circumventing sanctions, these tankers enable sanctioned nations to continue exporting oil, potentially undermining geopolitical strategies and destabilizing energy markets. The lack of regulation also creates unfair competition, disadvantaging companies that comply with international laws.

Steps Forward

Addressing the shadow fleet issue requires a multi-faceted approach. Governments and international bodies must invest in advanced tracking technologies, such as satellite-based monitoring systems, to detect and deter illegal activities. Strengthening port state controls and imposing stricter penalties on shipowners and operators involved in unregulated practices are also crucial steps.

Public awareness and advocacy can play a pivotal role. Environmental organizations are increasingly highlighting the dangers of the shadow fleet, calling for greater transparency and accountability in the maritime industry. Collaboration between governments, industry stakeholders, and NGOs is essential to creating a safer and more sustainable maritime environment.

The shadow fleet’s rise underscores the urgent need for stronger global governance in the shipping sector. As the world grapples with climate change and geopolitical tensions, ensuring the safety and sustainability of maritime trade is more critical than ever.

Sources:

Read More

Buried Dangers: Coal Ash Contamination in Mooresville

By |2025-01-14T13:57:56+00:00January 14th, 2025|

Buried Dangers: Coal Ash Contamination in Mooresville

Mooresville, North Carolina, a town known for its charm and scenic beauty, faces a grave environmental challenge that has sparked concern among its residents. The issue revolves around coal ash—a byproduct of coal-fired power plants—buried beneath parts of the town. This hidden hazard is now under scrutiny due to its potential connection to elevated rates of thyroid cancer among locals.

Coal ash contains hazardous substances such as arsenic, lead, and mercury. When improperly disposed of, these toxins can leach into the soil and water, posing significant health and environmental risks. In Mooresville, reports suggest that coal ash may have been buried decades ago without adequate safeguards, creating a ticking time bomb for public health and the environment.

A Community in Distress

Residents of Mooresville have voiced growing concerns about an unusual cluster of thyroid cancer cases. According to local accounts, the rate of thyroid cancer in the area appears to be alarmingly higher than the national average. While direct scientific links between the buried coal ash and these cancer cases have not been conclusively established, the suspicion has prompted calls for comprehensive investigations.

Families living in proximity to the suspected coal ash sites describe a mix of fear and frustration. Many worry about the long-term health impacts and the potential decline in property values. Community activists are urging local authorities and environmental agencies to act swiftly, demanding transparency and accountability.

Regulatory Challenges

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state environmental agencies have guidelines for the disposal and management of coal ash. However, enforcing these regulations has been inconsistent, and older disposal sites, like those in Mooresville, may not meet modern safety standards. Critics argue that the lack of stringent oversight in the past has left many communities vulnerable to the harmful effects of coal ash.

Efforts to address the issue have faced obstacles, including limited funding for environmental cleanups and resistance from stakeholders concerned about the economic implications of remediation. Some experts warn that ignoring the problem could lead to long-term consequences far more costly than immediate corrective measures.

The Path Forward

Environmental advocates and health experts emphasize the need for thorough testing of soil and water in affected areas to determine the extent of contamination. Public health studies are also crucial to investigate potential links between coal ash exposure and thyroid cancer rates.

Residents are calling for the removal of coal ash from residential areas and the implementation of more robust containment measures. Community-driven initiatives, such as awareness campaigns and petitions, are gaining momentum as locals unite to demand action.

Mooresville’s predicament highlights a broader issue faced by communities across the United States. As the nation grapples with the legacy of industrial waste, the story of this small town serves as a stark reminder of the importance of environmental stewardship and proactive regulation.

External Links

Read More

Are Wild Big Cats Naturalising in the UK? Evidence Grows

By |2025-01-13T12:42:43+00:00January 13th, 2025|

Are-Wild-Big-Cats-Naturalising-in-the-UK-Evidence-GrowsFor decades, stories of large cats wandering the British countryside were ignored as folklore or hyperactive imaginations. However, accumulating evidence suggests that these elusive predators are not merely passing through, but are actively naturalising in the UK. Reports, pictures, and ecological studies point to a rising population of wild big cats living in the British wilderness.

The idea of big cats in the UK isn’t new. The 1976 Dangerous Wild Animals Act, which tightened regulations on exotic pet ownership, led to many private owners releasing animals like pumas and lynxes into the wild to avoid costly permits. This, coupled with natural escapes from poorly secured private collections, is believed to have created a foundation for a feral population.

In recent years, sightings of big cats have surged, with over 2,000 reports annually, according to the British Big Cats Society (BBCS). These sightings often describe animals resembling black panthers, pumas, or lynxes, seen prowling fields and forests from Scotland to Cornwall.

Several incidents involve physical remains or traces. In 2022, a deer carcass with deep, claw-like wounds was discovered in Shropshire. Zoologists from an independent research group analysed the injuries and suggested they were consistent with predation by a large feline.

Even more compelling are the plaster casts of paw prints collected by enthusiasts. Some of these prints are significantly larger than those of domestic cats or dogs and have been verified by experts as belonging to big cat species.

In 2021, scientists analysing fur samples found on a barbed wire fence in Dorset identified DNA consistent with a melanistic leopard. This finding supports the theory that these animals are reproducing and adapting to their new environment.

The UK countryside offers an abundance of prey, such as deer and rabbits, and vast, remote habitats where big cats could thrive undetected. Experts like Dr. Andrew Hemmings from the Royal Agricultural University argue that these factors make the UK a suitable environment for large predators to establish themselves.

The possibility of naturalised big cats has captivated the public imagination. While many are excited by the idea, others raise concerns about potential risks to livestock and humans. Conservationists also highlight the ethical implications, suggesting that, if these populations exist, they could play a role in rewilding efforts.

Although definitive proof remains elusive, the accumulating evidence—ranging from sightings to genetic analysis—points to a growing likelihood that big cats are indeed naturalising in the UK. As public interest grows, calls for comprehensive studies to confirm their presence and assess their impact on local ecosystems are becoming louder.

Read More

Wildlife Comebacks: Species Return to Natural Habitats

By |2025-01-12T19:26:52+00:00January 12th, 2025|

In a landmark year for wildlife conservation, several species have made triumphant returns to their natural habitats, signaling progress in restoring ecosystems and reversing biodiversity loss. Reintroductions include the northern bald ibis in central Europe, pine martens in Devon, and beavers throughout Britain. Each success story emphasises the importance of coordinated conservation efforts and provides hope for future ecosystem restoration.

The Northern Bald Ibis Returns to Europe

Once considered critically endangered, the northern bald ibis has taken significant strides toward recovery thanks to decades of conservation work. This distinctive bird, with its glossy black feathers and bald head, was nearly extinct in Europe due to habitat loss and hunting. However, through targeted breeding programs and coordinated reintroduction efforts, populations are now thriving in parts of Austria, Germany, and Italy.

Organizations like the Waldrappteam project have played a pivotal role in these efforts, using innovative techniques such as teaching migration routes to young birds using ultralight aircraft. The sight of these birds soaring across European skies after centuries of absence is a testament to what focused conservation strategies can achieve.

Pine Martens Make a Comeback in Devon

In Britain, the pine marten, a small carnivorous mammal, has been successfully reintroduced to Devon’s woodlands. Once abundant, their numbers plummeted in the 20th century due to deforestation and persecution. Today, thanks to rewilding initiatives led by organizations like the Vincent Wildlife Trust, these elusive creatures are reclaiming their place in the ecosystem.

Pine martens are not just a delight to observe; they play a critical ecological role by controlling rodent populations and aiding forest regeneration. Early monitoring suggests that the reintroduced population is adapting well, raising hopes for broader recovery across the UK.

Beavers Transform Ecosystems Across Britain

Perhaps the most transformative reintroduction effort of recent years is the return of beavers to Britain. These industrious ecosystem engineers, absent for over 400 years, are being reintroduced across the country’s rivers and wetlands. Their ability to build dams and create wetland habitats benefits a host of other species, improves water quality, and reduces flooding risks.

Projects led by organizations such as the Beaver Trust have seen notable successes in Scotland, Devon, and Kent. Local communities are increasingly recognizing the ecological and economic benefits beavers bring, marking a shift toward coexistence.

Why Wildlife Reintroductions Matter

Wildlife reintroductions are about more than just bringing back individual species; they are key to restoring balance in ecosystems. Healthy ecosystems support biodiversity, combat climate change, and provide essential resources for human well-being.

Despite these successes, challenges remain. Habitat loss, climate change, and human-wildlife conflicts continue to threaten long-term stability. Collaborative efforts among governments, conservationists, and local communities will be critical to ensuring these species not only survive but thrive.

Read More

Amazon Deforestation at 8-Year Low: A Win for Conservation

By |2025-01-11T14:09:00+00:00January 11th, 2025|

In a startling reversal, a welcome and significant milestone in the fight against climate change has emerged: deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has reached its lowest rate in eight years. This development signals meaningful progress in preserving one of the planet’s most vital ecosystems and combating the dire consequences of environmental degradation. 

A Critical Turning Point

The Amazon rainforest, also known as the “Lungs of the Earth,” is critical to preserving global ecological equilibrium. It covers around 5.5 million square kilometres and absorbs large amounts of CO2 while creating oxygen, making it critical to climate change mitigation. However, this essential ecosystem has suffered constant threats from illicit logging, livestock ranching, mining, and agricultural expansion, resulting in worrisome rates of deforestation over the decades.

According to recent data issued by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), deforestation rates are down 33% over the previous year. Between August 2023 and July 2024, the Amazon lost about 4,000 square kilometres of forest, the lowest total since 2016. This victory marks a watershed moment in the quest to safeguard the Amazon and provides a ray of hope for worldwide conservation efforts.

The Impact of Policy and Enforcement

Deforestation has decreased significantly as a result of the Brazilian government’s increased commitment to environmental preservation under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. When President Lula took office in January 2023, he prioritised rectifying his predecessor’s environmentally destructive policies, which had drawn international criticism for eroding environmental laws..

Key measures implemented include:

  • Strengthened Law Enforcement: The government increased funding for environmental enforcement agencies, such as IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources), enabling them to crack down on illegal deforestation activities.
  • Indigenous Land Protections: Efforts to recognize and safeguard Indigenous territories have played a pivotal role, as these areas often serve as natural barriers against deforestation.
  • Global Partnerships: Brazil has also partnered with international organizations and governments, including the European Union and Norway, to secure funding for preservation initiatives. The Amazon Fund, a mechanism that channels resources into sustainable projects, has been revitalized.

Broader Implications

Reduced deforestation benefits not only Brazil but also the rest of the world. By maintaining the Amazon, the world’s biggest rainforest, Brazil helps to mitigate climate change, protect biodiversity, and assist Indigenous groups that rely on the jungle for survival.

However, issues remain. Economic pressures and political opposition from agricultural and mining lobbies continue to pose challenges. To preserve this downward trend in deforestation, sustained efforts will be required on both the domestic and international levels.

Sources and Evidence

  1. Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE): www.inpe.br
  2. Reuters Coverage of Amazon Fund: www.reuters.com
  3. Environmental Defense Fund Report: www.edf.org
  4. Analysis by World Resources Institute (WRI): www.wri.org

The dramatic drop in Amazon deforestation demonstrates the effectiveness of targeted policy measures and international collaboration. As the globe commemorates this accomplishment, it serves as a reminder that collaborative efforts can result in considerable progress towards protecting our planet’s future.

Read More

Earth Hits 1.5° Warming Mark for the First Time: A Dire Warning from 2024 Climate Report

By |2025-01-10T13:47:09+00:00January 10th, 2025|

2024: A Global Warming Milestone According to EU’s Copernicus Climate Report

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has released its annual climate report, marking 2024 as the first year on record where the global average temperature surpassed the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This alarming milestone highlights the accelerating pace of climate change and its increasingly dire implications for the planet.

Key Findings from the Report

  1. Global Average Temperature The report reveals that the global average temperature for 2024 was 1.51°C higher than the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900). This marks the first time this threshold has been breached over the course of an entire calendar year. Notably, the temperature increase was consistent across all months, underscoring the persistence of warming trends.
  2. Role of El Niño The intensifying El Niño event played a significant role in 2024’s temperature anomalies. The phenomenon, which involves warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, contributed to record-breaking heatwaves and amplified global warming impacts. However, the report emphasizes that the underlying cause remains the accumulation of greenhouse gases due to human activities.
  3. Record-Breaking Weather Events 2024 witnessed an unprecedented series of extreme weather events, including:
    • Heatwaves: Europe experienced its hottest summer on record, with temperatures in several regions exceeding 45°C. Similar patterns were observed in North America, Asia, and parts of Africa.
    • Wildfires: Massive wildfires swept through the Mediterranean, Canada, and Australia, exacerbated by prolonged droughts and high temperatures.
    • Flooding: Torrential rains led to catastrophic flooding in South Asia and parts of South America, displacing millions and causing significant economic damage.
  4. Arctic and Antarctic Changes Polar regions showed alarming trends, with Arctic sea ice extent reaching its lowest level since satellite records began. In the Antarctic, sea ice also declined sharply, raising concerns about rising sea levels and disrupted ecosystems.

Human and Environmental Impacts

The breach of the 1.5°C threshold carries profound implications for ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide:

  • Biodiversity Loss: Coral reefs, already under stress, suffered further bleaching events, while terrestrial and marine species faced habitat disruptions.
  • Food Security: Crop yields in major agricultural regions declined due to heat stress and erratic weather patterns.
  • Health Crises: Heatwaves led to a spike in heat-related illnesses and deaths, particularly in vulnerable populations.

Policy and Mitigation Challenges

Despite international efforts to combat climate change, such as the Paris Agreement, global emissions have not decreased at the required rate. The report calls for immediate and intensified action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition to renewable energy, and enhance global cooperation.

C3S Director Carlo Buontempo stated, “Crossing the 1.5°C threshold is not just a statistic. It’s a stark reminder of the urgency with which we must address the climate crisis. Every fraction of a degree matters.”

Looking Ahead

While the 1.5°C milestone is sobering, scientists caution that this does not signify a permanent crossing of the threshold. Temporary fluctuations, such as El Niño, can influence yearly averages. However, without significant action, permanent exceedance could become a reality by the 2030s.

The Copernicus report serves as a wake-up call for governments, industries, and individuals to accelerate climate action. The stakes have never been higher, and the need for collective, decisive action has never been more urgent.

Read More

Is the Digital Euro a Trojan Horse for Government Surveillance?

By |2025-01-08T13:29:07+00:00January 8th, 2025|

Is the Digital Euro a Trojan Horse for Government Surveillance? Privacy Risks and Freedom at Stake

The European Central Bank (ECB) is moving on with plans to launch a digital euro, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) designed to supplement physical cash and existing electronic payment mechanisms. This program intends to establish a secure, efficient, and widely accepted digital payment method across the eurozone. However, major concerns have been voiced about the potential impact on individual freedom and the prospect of increased government surveillance.

Progress and Timeline

In October 2023, the ECB transitioned into the preparation phase of the digital euro project, focusing on finalising the design and distribution models. This phase is scheduled to last two years, with a decision on whether to proceed expected by the end of 2025. The ECB emphasises that any decision to issue a digital euro will only be considered after the completion of the European Union’s legislative process.

European Central Bank

Privacy Concerns and Surveillance Risks

A significant concern surrounding the digital euro is the potential erosion of financial privacy. Unlike cash transactions, which are inherently private, digital transactions can be recorded and traced. Critics argue that without robust privacy safeguards, a digital euro could enable unprecedented levels of government surveillance over individual financial activities. The Cato Institute warns that CBDCs could become gateways to surveillance and control, posing serious threats to financial freedom and privacy.

Cato Institute

The European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) has highlighted that, depending on technical design choices, different privacy and data protection challenges might emerge. A recent survey by the ECB showed that privacy is among the most compelling issues for European citizens regarding the digital euro. If implemented without proper security protocols and an adequate architecture, privacy and security issues could have a major impact due to the scale of such projects.

European Data Protection Supervisor

Design Considerations and Safeguards

The ECB acknowledges these concerns and has stated that ensuring data privacy and consumer protection are of paramount importance in discussions around the digital euro. Complex coding systems involving cryptography, as well as legal frameworks, will be key to embedding privacy and keeping customer data safe.

World Economic Forum

Additionally, the ECB has proposed holding limits for the digital euro, which would determine the maximum value of digital euros a consumer would be allowed to have, currently suggested to be between €3,000 and €4,000. These limits are intended to prevent large-scale shifts from private bank deposits to the digital euro, which could have implications for financial stability.

Bruegel

Implications for Freedom

The introduction of a digital euro raises serious questions about the balance between technological advancement and individual freedoms. While it promises greater efficiency and security in payments, there is a risk that it could lead to increased state control over personal finances. The potential for programmable money, where the issuer could control how and where the currency is used, further exacerbates these concerns. Critics fear that such features could be used to enforce policies or restrict certain behaviours, thereby infringing on personal freedoms.

Conclusion

As the ECB moves forward with the digital euro project, it faces the critical task of addressing privacy and surveillance concerns. The challenge lies in designing a system that leverages the benefits of digital currencies while safeguarding individual freedoms and preventing government overreach. Ongoing public consultations and transparent discussions will be essential in achieving a balance that maintains trust and upholds the principles of privacy and freedom in the digital age.

Recent Developments in Digital Euro and CBDC Discussions:

pastedGraphic.pngReuters

Digital euro likely but not inevitable, ECB digital currency chief says

216 days ago

pastedGraphic.pngReuters

Central bank digital currency momentum growing, study shows

113 days ago

pastedGraphic_1.pngFinancial Times

Speak your brains: CBDC edition

111 days ago

Read More

Protect Farmland, Preserve Food: Why Solar Panels Belong on Rooftops and Brownfield Sites

By |2025-01-07T15:17:26+00:00January 7th, 2025|

Protect Farmland, Preserve Food: Why Solar Panels Belong on Rooftops and Brownfield Sites

The dispute over the deployment of solar panels on valuable agricultural land in the UK is sparking widespread interest. Critics contend that large-scale solar farms on fertile farmland jeopardise food production and detract from the countryside’s natural beauty. They are pushing for alternate solar installation sites such as brownfield sites, car & lorry parks and rooftops. And the facts and figures behind this are persuasive.

Impact on Food Production

The UK government emphasises the importance of protecting ‘Best and Most Versatile’ (BMV) agricultural land, which is classified as Grades 1, 2, and 3a. This land is deemed most suitable for producing food and should be preserved for agricultural use. Guidelines suggest that large solar projects should avoid BMV land and instead utilise brownfield sites, contaminated land, industrial areas, and lower-quality agricultural land to prevent compromising the UK’s food security.

The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) argues that there is sufficient space for solar panels on rooftops, brownfield sites and car parks to meet the UK’s solar power targets without encroaching on valuable farmland.

Alternative Sites for Solar Installations

Brownfield sites, previously developed lands that may be contaminated or derelict, present viable alternatives for solar farms. These sites are often unsuitable for agriculture or housing but can be repurposed for renewable energy projects. Developing solar farms on brownfield sites can revitalise these areas and contribute to energy production without affecting food supply.

Car parks and rooftops also offer substantial potential for solar energy generation. Installing solar panels on these surfaces can provide clean energy directly to the buildings they serve, reducing transmission losses and enhancing energy efficiency. This approach minimises the need to use agricultural land for energy production.

Government Policy and Public Opinion

The UK government has reiterated its commitment to balancing energy security with food production. In recent statements, officials have emphasised that solar projects should be developed on non-agricultural land to protect food security. This policy direction aligns with public concerns about the use of farmland for non-agricultural purposes.

A recent poll indicates that nearly 90% of voters believe safeguarding UK-produced food is as important as securing domestic energy supplies. This sentiment underscores the public’s desire to prioritise food security alongside renewable energy development.

Conclusion

While the expansion of renewable energy is crucial for meeting climate goals, it is essential to consider the implications of land use decisions. Utilising brownfield sites, car parks, and rooftops for solar installations can achieve energy targets without compromising food production or the beauty of our countryside. This balanced approach ensures that the UK can advance its renewable energy agenda while preserving its agricultural heritage and food security.

Sources:

  • Solar projects must fit in with food security – GOV.UK
    GOV.UK
  • Planning for solar farms – UK Parliament
    Research Briefings
  • Brownfield solar farms – Ethical Power
    Ethical Power
  • Focus on fishing and food security, say voters – The Times
    The Times
Read More

Microplastic pollution reaches crisis point in UK waters

By |2025-01-02T17:55:45+00:00January 2nd, 2025|

With the strain on the inland rivers and coastal waterways in the UK, plastic pollution has become a major environmental issue. Despite growing awareness and efforts to curb the issue, evidence reveals that the scale of plastic contamination remains alarming, threatening ecosystems, wildlife, and human health.

Extent of Plastic Pollution

Recent studies conducted by environmental organisations and research institutions provide a sobering picture of the UK’s waterways. According to a 2023 report by the UK Environment Agency, microplastics were detected in 80% of surveyed river sites. These tiny plastic fragments, often invisible to the naked eye, originate from degraded larger plastics, synthetic clothing fibres, and microbeads used in cosmetics and cleaning products.

Larger plastic debris is also prevalent. A joint study by the Marine Conservation Society (MCS) and Keep Britain Tidy revealed that over 1 million plastic items are found per year on UK beaches during organised clean-ups. Inland rivers such as the Thames and Mersey act as conduits, carrying this waste to the sea. Research published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology highlights that the Thames alone deposits an estimated 94,000 microplastics per second into the North Sea.

Sources of Pollution

The sources of plastic pollution in UK waters are diverse and often interlinked. Mismanaged waste disposal, littering, and industrial activities contribute significantly. Single-use plastics—including bottles, packaging, and cigarette filters—account for a large portion of the debris found in both rivers and coastal regions. Additionally, urban runoff during rainfall events washes plastics into drainage systems, ultimately discharging them into natural water bodies.

Agricultural practices are also implicated. Plastic mulches and polymer-based fertilisers contribute to soil contamination, which is then transported to rivers through surface runoff. Furthermore, wastewater treatment plants, which are not fully effective at filtering microplastics, act as a secondary source of contamination.

Ecological and Economic Impact

The environmental consequences of plastic pollution are profound. Wildlife, including fish, birds, and marine mammals, faces dire risks. A 2022 study by the University of Exeter found plastic ingestion in 33% of fish species sampled from UK waters, with potential implications for food chains and human consumption.

Economic costs are also substantial. The tourism and fishing industries suffer from degraded environments, while local councils bear increasing expenses for clean-up operations. The damage to marine ecosystems disrupts fisheries, affecting livelihoods and regional economies dependent on sustainable fish stocks.

Mitigation Efforts and Challenges

In response to the crisis, the UK government and environmental groups have implemented various measures. The introduction of the plastic bag charge and bans on microbeads are positive steps. However, these efforts are insufficient to address the root causes comprehensively.

Innovative solutions, such as Thames21’s river clean-up initiatives and technological advancements in microplastic filtration, have shown promise. Yet, challenges persist. Inadequate enforcement of existing regulations, limited recycling infrastructure, and continued consumer reliance on plastic products hinder progress.

Sources

  1. UK Environment Agency (2023 Report): This report provides information on the activities regulated by the Environment Agency in 2022, including compliance of businesses with environmental permits and emissions.
    GOV.UK
  2. Marine Conservation Society (MCS) and Keep Britain Tidy: The Marine Conservation Society’s ‘State of Our Beaches’ report highlights the need to cut plastic pollution, detailing the amount of litter collected from UK beaches.
    Dive Magazine
  3. University of Manchester Study on Microplastics in Rivers: This study reveals severe levels of microplastic pollution within the Medina Estuary, highlighting the environmental crisis in the Isle of Wight estuary.
    Phys.org
  4. University of Exeter (2022 Study): This study found that 100% of animals washed up on British shores had plastic in their stomachs, indicating the widespread impact of plastic pollution on wildlife.
    Keep Britain Tidy
  5. CHEMTrust: How bad is the micro plastic pollution in  our rivers? CHEMTrust
Read More

Should Thames Water be allowed to fail ?

By |2025-01-02T17:00:14+00:00December 31st, 2024|

Thames Water, the UK’s largest water provider with nearly 16 million users, is currently facing serious financial issues. Should it be allowed to fall into administration?

As of December 2024, the company’s debt exceeded £19 billion, raising questions about its operational viability and the likelihood for government intervention.

It recorded an operational deficit of £189 million in the first half of 2024, attributable to pollution penalties, consultancy payouts, and losses on inter-company loans. The corporation also faced exceptional charges of £465 million, including a £104 million provision for anticipated fines and a £40 million restructuring program.

This significant debt burden has stretched its financial resources, limiting its capacity to invest in critical infrastructure projects. Thomas Water has stated that it may run out of money by March 2025.

A 40% increase in pollution events has resulted in substantial fines, severely stressing the company’s budget. Thames Water was fined £18.2 million by Ofwat in December 2024 for violating dividend regulations on payments made in 2023 and 2024. Ofwat also stated that it will “claw back value” to recover £131 million of the payments.

Should Thames Water be allowed to fail ?

Thames Water is currently seeking permission for a potential £3 billion financial rescue package to address its current financial challenges – but will a new bail-out be merely “kicking the can down the road” ?

As an alternative, going into administration would support a full restructuring of the company’s operations, allowing a greater focus on efficiency and service quality without the immediate strain of debt commitments. This procedure then gets an opportunity to fix the root causes that have hampered the company’s performance over years of managed decline.

Administration allows the opportunity to reorganise or reduce the company’s significant debt, relieving financial pressures and creating a more sustainable economic model, thus increasing the company’s capacity to invest in vital infrastructure and environmental initiative.

A government-appointed administrator would verify that the company’s activities are in the public’s best interests, potentially leading to increased environmental compliance and customer service standards. This oversight has the potential to rebuild public trust while also ensuring regulatory compliance.

The administration of such a large utility may encourage a rethinking of the regulatory and ownership arrangements in the UK’s water industry, potentially leading to broader reforms that benefit both consumers and the environment. This may involve talks on alternative ownership arrangements, such as mutual or cooperative structures.

What are the potential downsides and risks ?

Going into administration, it will be critical to provide service continuity throughout: uninterrupted water supply and wastewater services during the transition period to preserve public health and safety.

The restructuring process will cause job uncertainty for Thames Water’s personnel, needing appropriate communication and support measures to address employee concerns.

To the financial markets, allowing a large utility to fall into administration might have a broader impact on investor confidence in the UK’s regulated industries, potentially influencing future investment and financing in the sector. 

It will be critical to strike a compromise between Thames Water’s immediate requirements and the industry’s overall stability but the question remains: why shouldn’t Thames Water be allowed to fail and give us an opportunity to reset and renew, as a template for the UK water industry going forward, utilising a new mutual or cooperative model ?

Read More

Ocean treaty agreed in momentous success after 10 years negotiation

By |2023-03-06T17:52:30+00:00March 6th, 2023|

After ten years of discussions, nations have secured a historic agreement to safeguard the world’s seas. The High Seas Treaty intends to conserve and restore marine life by designating 30% of the oceans as protected areas by 2030.

After 38 continuous hours of talks and 10 years of negotiations, the deal was struck on Saturday evening at the United Nations headquarters in New York.

The talks had been stalled for years due to conflicts over finance and fishing rights. The latest international accord on ocean conservation, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, was signed 40 years ago in 1982. This agreement established the high seas – international waters in which all countries have the right to fish, ship, and conduct research – however just 1.2% of these waters are protected. Sea species living beyond these protected regions have been under risk from climate change, overfishing and maritime traffic. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s most recent estimate of worldwide marine species, approximately 10% are at risk of extinction (IUCN).

These new protected zones, established by the treaty, will limit the amount of fishing allowed, the routes of shipping channels, and exploratory operations such as deep sea mining, which involves extracting minerals from a sea bottom 200m or deeper below the surface.

Environmental organisations have been concerned that mining methods might damage animal mating areas, produce noise pollution and be harmful for marine life. The International Seabed Authority that handles licencing have stated that “any future activity on the deep seabed would be subject to severe environmental laws and oversight to ensure that they are carried out sustainably and responsibly”.

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s most recent estimate of worldwide marine species, approximately 10% are at risk of extinction (IUCN). These new protected zones, established by the treaty, will limit the amount of fishing allowed, the routes of shipping channels, and exploratory operations such as deep sea mining, which involves extracting minerals from a sea bottom 200m or deeper below the surface.

Environmental organisations have been concerned that mining methods might damage animal mating areas, produce noise pollution and be harmful for marine life.

According to the International Seabed Authority, which controls licencing, “any future activity in the deep seabed will be subject to strict environmental regulations and oversight to ensure that they are carried out sustainably and responsibly”.

Rena Lee, UN Ambassador for Oceans, dropped the gavel after two weeks of tense discussions, with the primary point of contention being the exchange of marine genetic resources. Marine genetic resources are biological materials derived from plants and animals found in the ocean that may be used to benefit civilization in the form of medications, industrial operations, and food.

Richer countries now have the resources and financing to explore the deep ocean, but poorer countries wanted to ensure that any advantages discovered are distributed evenly.

This is a watershed moment in conservation, demonstrating that in a divided world, conserving environment and people can win over geopolitics. Governments will, however, need to gather again to formally accept the accord, and there will be more work to be done before the treaty can be implemented.

Read More

Time’s up for the mismanagement of the UK’s most precious resource – our rivers and coastal waters

By |2023-03-02T13:58:40+00:00March 2nd, 2023|

For years, the UK’s management of its rivers and coastal waters has been deteriorating at a greater pace than we have seen since the Industrial Revolution and has never been fit for purpose. With the pace of deterioration of our water quality accelerating at a truly alarming pace, we need an urgent, coordinated and comprehensive national review, driving prompt action including law changes to force improvements by our water companies, business and agriculture.

In this new series, Save the Planet lays down its manifesto for change – a “carrot and stick” approach of strengthening regulations with punitive penalties for failure, yet actively promoting and rewarding sustainable initiatives for a better future.

There are several pragmatic and effective measures that the UK could take to fix the high levels of contamination and pollution of its rivers and inland coastal waters. These include:

Strengthening regulations: To reduce pollution levels in rivers and inland coastal waters, the UK government must strengthen existing regulations or enact new ones. Setting even stricter limits on pollutant discharge from industrial and agricultural activities, for example.

Increasing monitoring: The government must conduct more extensive monitoring of water quality in rivers and inland coastal waters in order to identify pollution hotspots and take action to address them, including the use of new technologies such as sensors to monitor water quality in real time.

Promoting sustainable agriculture: Agricultural activities are a major source of pollution in rivers and inland coastal waters. The government should increase its promotion of sustainable agriculture practices that reduce fertiliser and pesticide use, as well as encourage farmers to adopt more environmentally friendly practices.

Encouraging public participation: The government must encourage the public to participate in efforts to reduce pollution in rivers and inland coastal waters. This will include campaigns to raise awareness of the issue and encourage people to report pollution incidents.

Investing in infrastructure: To improve the quality of water in rivers and inland coastal waters, the government must expand infrastructure such as water treatment plants. This will include upgrading existing infrastructure or constructing new facilities in underserved areas.

Collaborating with stakeholders: The government must collaborate with stakeholders such as industry, agriculture, and environmental groups to develop solutions to reduce pollution in rivers and inland coastal waters – working together to develop and implement best practices for reducing pollution.

Overall, a comprehensive approach that combines legislative measures, increased monitoring, sustainable practices, public participation, infrastructure investments, and stakeholder collaboration is needed to fix the high levels of contamination and pollution in Britain’s rivers and inland coastal waters.

Read More

Arun waters amongst the most E. Coli-infested in the UK

By |2023-02-28T17:49:18+00:00February 28th, 2023|

According to research, the coastal waters in and surrounding Arun District are among the most E. coli-infested in the UK, with Chichester having some of the worst cases.

The numbers, gathered by SEO experts Reboot Online, collate and compare data on water quality around the UK to provide residents with a thorough understanding of the condition of our coastal waters.

West Wittering coastal water contaminated by e.coli

West Wittering coastal water contaminated by e.coli

They demonstrate that Chichester has suffered more than other areas since E. coli rates there have reportedly climbed by 568.56%. Rates of intestinal enterococci, a sign of potential faecal matter contamination of water bodies, increased by a comparable amount: 498.18%.

With a score of 97 out of 100, Chichester was one of the regions with the worst water quality degradation. Nonetheless, the numbers show that Chichester has not fared as poorly as some other regions of the country, with a “relatively modest” 25,705 hours of sewage discharge documented, despite widespread worries about sewage discharges.

In most ways, Arun District performed marginally better than Chichester itself, though not significantly. The scenario is somewhat mild compared to what Dorset residents had to deal with, when approximately 32,900 hours’ worth of sewage was discharged over the course of the past year. Even so, the situation regarding the deterioration of Arun’s water quality is significantly less rosy with some of the UK’s most degraded and E. coli-infested coastal waterways.

Water quality in the area received a score of 85.05 out of 100, and the proportion of E. coli increased by 85.83 over the previous year. The percentage of intestinal enterococci has also significantly increased during the past year, rising to 250.52%.

Read More

Welsh Coastal Areas Named Among UK’s Most Polluted Due to Sewage Contamination

By |2023-02-25T14:12:36+00:00February 25th, 2023|

Two Welsh coastal areas have been identified as some of the most highly-polluted spots in the UK due to sewage contamination.

The latest figures illustrate the dismal state of many bodies of water due to contamination from water firms.

Two north Welsh locations have made it into the top ten – Rhyl and Morfa Nefyn – while the Menai Strait has also secured a spot in the top twenty. The Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales have revealed that sewage was pumped into waterways for 3.4 million hours in only one year, which can be translated to 388 years.

This issue has been brought to light by highlighting that the River Severn, which divides England and Wales, was suffering from severe pollution due to the 28,000 hours of sewage pumped into it by Severn Trent Water over 2,656 times.

Other rivers listed in the top 20 include River Teifi, River Usk, River Wye, River Tawe and and River Taf. Gwent river pollution by sewage

Welsh Water, also known as Dŵr Cymru, said it was “unsurprising” that Wales had greater numbers of spills than other countries, going on to blame storm overflows and rainfall.

“Welsh Water has monitors on 99% of our storm overflows, more than any other water company, and given Wales also receives more rainfall than England this results in these storm overflows operating more often.

“It is therefore unsurprising that we currently record larger numbers of spills than others.”

Storm overflows act as safety valves, releasing extra sewage into rivers, lakes or the ocean when weather conditions cause excess rainfall. This stops properties from becoming flooded and saves them from sewage backing up into their streets and homes during extreme weather events.

The water company concluded to state that it was continuing to “protect the environment” and “assess the impact of storm overflows” to work to improve the problem.

“We are investing over £900m to protect the environment between 2020 and 2025. With 44% of Welsh rivers achieving good ecological status, compared to 16% in England, we are playing our part by investing to prevent any water body in Wales failing good ecological status by 2030 as a result of our wastewater treatment works.”

Undertones singer and fisherman Feargal Sharkey had something to say about the figures outlined on ‘Top of the Poops’ – tweeting:“What on earth is going on in Wales, Welsh Water with an utterly despicable record of six of the most polluted rivers. Get a grip.”

In a statement, Natural Resources Wales explained it was “concerned about the impact of storm discharges on our water quality”, and added a taskforce has since been set up to help reduce the impact.

“The taskforce brings together Welsh Government, NRW, Ofwat, Dŵr Cymru and Hafren Dyfrdwy, with independent advice from Afonydd Cymru and the Consumer Council for Water. Collaboratively, the Taskforce has published a series of action plans to gather greater evidence on the impact of storm overflows on our rivers and the sea to reduce the impacts they cause, to improve regulation and to educate the public on sewer misuse.”

It added that water companies have a “responsibility to the environment” and need to start taking the issue “seriously”: “We will continue to challenge the water companies to make sure storm overflows are properly controlled. We will investigate any cases of non-compliance and where appropriate take the required enforcement action.”

Read More

English Water Companies Oversaw Shocking Levels of Pollution in 2022

By |2023-02-20T17:10:40+00:00February 20th, 2023|

According to the UK government’s Environmental Performance Report for 2021, English water companies oversaw shocking levels of pollution in a year where there were 1,677 sewerage incidents, where untreated effluent was released into rivers and coastal waters.

UK effluent discharge into rivers by national water companies

Effluent discharge into a river in the UKThere are nine water and sewerage companies operating in England that provide clean drinking water and waste water services, and the government regulates and works in partnership with them to ensure they meet environmental standards. However, there have been instances of water companies deliberately releasing sewage into rivers and inland waters during heavy rain, which can have a significant impact on the environment. In recent years, there have been several high-profile cases of water companies contaminating rivers and inland waters in this way, leading to fines and legal action.

For example, in 2019, Southern Water was fined a record £126 million for deliberately releasing billions of litres of sewage into the environment over a period of years, resulting in serious harm to the environment and public health. Similarly, in 2021, Thames Water was fined £4 million after pleading guilty to illegally discharging sewage into a river in Buckinghamshire, causing serious harm to the environment.

Evidence from River Action UK indicates that the unprecedented growth of poultry farms in the headwaters of the Wye River is contributing to the river’s deterioration. The organisation reports that there are currently 500 farms in the counties of Shropshire, Herefordshire, and Powys, which are impacting the river’s health and causing harm to wildlife.

According to the River Action UK report, poultry farms have a significant impact on river water quality due to their high nutrient output, which increases the growth of algae and depletes oxygen levels, leading to the death of aquatic animals. The report states that the excess nutrients from poultry farms enter the Wye River via run-off from fields and can cause significant harm to both wildlife and people. The organisation is campaigning to raise awareness of the issue and encourage regulators to take action to prevent further harm to the river.

20 most polluted rivers in England and Wales and responsible water companies

River Severn – Severn Trent Water

River Calder – Yorkshire Water

River Aire – Yorkshire Water

Unknown – South West Water

River Derwent – Severn Trent Water

River Ouse – Yorkshire Water

River Tamar – South West Water

River Trent – Severn Trent Water

River Teifi – Dwr Cymru

River Eden – United Utilities

River Erewash – Severn Trent Water

River Usk – Dwr Cymru

River Irwell – United Utilities

River Wye – Dwr Cymru

River Don – Yorkshire Water

River Wharfe – Yorkshire Water

River Tawe – Dwr Cymru

Menai Strait – Dwr Cymru

River Rother – Southern Water

River Taf – Dwr Cymru

The Environment Agency (EA) has called for water company bosses to be jailed for serious pollution, as it revealed that English water companies oversaw shocking levels of pollution in the last year. A recent poll, cited by eastdevonwatch.org found that a majority of UK voters want water company bosses whose firms pollute rivers to be threatened with criminal prosecution.

Read More

Will Steffen: The dilemma of pioneer climate scientists

By |2025-01-09T09:35:21+00:00February 12th, 2023|

The name of Will Lee Steffen will stand tall as a pioneer Earth systems and climate change scientist at our critical time when the life support systems of our planet are increasingly threatened. Along with other pioneer climate scientists over the last ~40 years or so, such as Wallace Broecker, James Hansen, Ralph Keeling, Paul Crutzen, Richard Alley, Stefan Rahmstorf, John Schellenberg, William Ruddiman, John Kutzbach, Guy Calendar, Michael Mann, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Weaver, Eric Rignot, Gavin Schmidt, Katrin Meissner, Kevin Trenberth and other, trying to communicate the scientific message of the greatest peril the planet is facing since at least 55 million years ago.

Will Lee Steffen: 25 June 1947 – 29 January 2023

There cannot be a more painful position for scientists than to find themselves compelled to issue severe warnings of the demise of the natural world, civilization, society, family and future generations due to the sharp rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures originating from emissions from human industry. Yet this is precisely what climate scientists have been called to do, Cassandra-like, based on the physical and observed evidence for the rapid elevation in atmospheric, land and marine temperatures since the end of the 18th century at a rate exceeding geological mass extinction events.

Not all scientists have risen-up to the challenge. A small number have become climate change denial advocates, often supported by oil and gas corporations. Many in companies, government, institutions and in some instances even in universities had to subdue or moderate their warnings. Personal attitudes and politics became evident where, in some instances, scientists regarded as “optimists” were favoured by the authorities while other, labelled as “alarmists”, were penalized for their views. Nowadays the so-called “alarmists” are vindicated as extreme weather events are taking over large parts of the world.

Will Steffen avoided these pitfalls, sticking to the authentic scientific evidence and the manifest consequences of global warming around the world, yet disappointed by the refusal of many in authority to understand the implications of climate science for future generations, as reported in his communications (The Guardian 6/10/2018):

“I think the dominant linear, deterministic framework for assessing climate change is flawed, especially at higher levels of temperature rise. So, yes, model projections using models that don’t include these processes indeed become less useful at higher temperature levels. Or, as my co-author John Schellnhuber says, we are making a big mistake when we think we can “park” the Earth System at any given temperature rise – say 2C – and expect it to stay there … Even at the current level of warming of about 1C above pre-industrial, we may have already crossed a tipping point for one of the feedback processes (Arctic summer sea ice), and we see instabilities in others – permafrost melting, Amazon forest dieback, boreal forest dieback and weakening of land and ocean physiological carbon sinks. And we emphasise that these processes are not linear and often have built-in feedback processes that generate tipping point behaviour. For example, for melting permafrost, the chemical process that decomposes the peat generates heat itself, which leads to further melting and so on.”

Will Steffen wrote to me in our correspondence (27/03/2022):

“For all practical purposes i.e., timescales that humans can relate to, the levels of climate change we are driving towards now will be with us for thousands of years at least. The PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum) might be an appropriate analogue – a rapid spike in CO₂ concentration and temperature followed by the drawdown of CO₂ over 100,000 to 200,000 years. For all practical purposes, that time for recovery is so long (in human time scales) that it could be considered irreversible. Of course, extinctions are irreversible. So when the twin pressures of climate change and direct human degradation are applied to the biosphere, the resulting mass extinction event, that we have already entered, is of course irreversible.”

Will was one of a kind. While he would not let his presentations, expressed in scientifically objective and accurate terms, to be too coloured by optimism or pessimism, the congenial nature of his personality and gentle delivery could not hide the severe implications of his message. Rising above the fray, even his detractors found it difficult to refer to him in terms they commonly use toward other climate scientists. Nowadays in many forums climate scientists are replaced by economists, vested interests, marketing agents, sociologists and politicians, with only a vague idea of the basic laws of physics and the atmosphere.

Young generations, represented by Greta Thunberg, will see Will as one of last defenders of their future.

A/Professor Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist
The University of New South Wales.
11 February 2023

Read More

Dire situation gets even more dire

By |2025-01-09T11:44:44+00:00February 4th, 2023|

Sea ice extent is very low at both poles at the moment, and the outlook is that the situation is getting even worse.

Around Antarctica, sea ice extent was 2.23 million km² on February 2, 2023. Later in February this year, extent looks set to go below the 1.924 million km² all-time record low reached on February 25, 2022.

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.676 km² on February 1 , 2023, the second-lowest extent on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

As the above image indicates, over the next few days Arctic sea ice extent looks set to reach an all-time record low for the time of year.

Conditions are dire
This means that Antarctic sea ice could reach an all-time record low extent later this month, while at the same time Arctic sea ice could be at a record low extent for the time of year.
Furthermore, emissions keep rising, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels keep rising and extreme weather events are getting ever more extreme. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven’t yet been hit by the full wrath of carbon dixode pollution.
Furthermore, an earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015.
These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise over the coming years. On top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.

Circumstances that make the situation even more dire

Firstly, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, we’re moving into an El Niño.

It looks like it’s going to be a very strong El Niño, given that we’ve been in a La Niña for such a long time.

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.
[ from earlier post, adapted from NOAA ]

Secondly, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum by July 2025, as illustrated by the next two images on the right, adapted from NOAA.

Observed values for January 2023 are already well above the maximum values that NOAA predicted to be reached in July 2025. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

Thirdly, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere.
Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise.
A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.
Feedbacks and developments making things worse
Then, there are a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further.
On top of the water vapor added by the Tonga eruption, there are several feedbacks causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere.

Further feedbacks include additional greenhouse gas release such as methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from rapidly thawing permafrost on land.

Some developments could make things even worse. As discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.

Falling away of this aerosol masking effect could cause a huge temperature rise, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

A huge temperature rise could therefore unfold soon, causing the clouds tipping point to be crossed that on its own could result in further rise of 8°C. Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

Conclusion
The dire situation we’re in looks set to get even more dire, calling for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NSIDC – Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer – sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Pre-industrial

• NOAA – Solar cycle progression
• Sunspots

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C – by Stuart Jenkins et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2

• Moistening Atmosphere
• Methane keeps rising
• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

Read More

The global climate change suicide pact

By |2025-01-09T09:36:35+00:00January 29th, 2023|

 by Andrew Glikson

Despite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Global 1880-2021 annual average temperatures (adapted by UCAR from ClimateCentral).

Since 1880 mean global temperatures rose at a rate of 0.08°C per decade, from 1981 by 0.18°C per decade and more when emitted aerosols are accounted for (Hansen et al., in Berwyn, 2022). According to Will Steffen, Australia’s leading climate scientist “there was already a chance we have triggered a global tipping cascade that would take us to a less habitable Hothouse Earth climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions” (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Global mean temperature profile since 200 AD projected to beyond 2000 AD (Will Steffen)

Over a brief span of less than two centuries (Figure 1) anthropogenic reversal of the carbon cycle induced the emission of some 1.5 10¹² tonnes of CO₂ and an increased release of 150% more CH₄ from the crust, accumulated in sediments for hundreds of million years through photosynthesis and calcification, as well as from permafrost and oceans. Permeation of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere with the toxic residues of ancient plants and organisms, poisoning the biosphere, is leading to the Sixth mass extinction of species in the history of nature.

Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.

Figure 3. Europe: Maximum extreme temperatures, July 17-23, 2002.

The progression of global warming is unlikely to be linear as the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica glaciers would cool parts of the ocean and in part the continents (Figure 4), leading toward a stadial-type phenomenon, the classic case of which is symbolized by the Younger dryas cool period 12,900 to 11,700 years ago.

Figure 4. Projected transient stadial cooling events (Hansen et al., 2016)

National and international legal systems appear unable to restrict the saturation of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, as governments preside over the worst calamity in natural history since the demise of the dinosaurs. Facing heatwaves (Figure 3), fires, floods and sea level rise, those responsible may in part remain oblivious to the magnitude of the consequences, waking up when it is too late.

There was a time when leaders fell on their sword when defeated in battle or lose their core beliefs, nowadays most not even resign their privileged positions to resist the existential danger posed to advanced life, including human civilization, preoccupied as nations are with preparations for nuclear wars.

It is long past time to declare a global climate and nuclear emergency.
Andrew Glikson

A/Prof. Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

Read More

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

By |2025-01-09T11:48:49+00:00January 3rd, 2023|

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks. 
The upcoming El Niño
Temperatures are currently suppressed as we’re in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post.
The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.
Chances are that we’ll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.
[ image adapted from NOAA, from earlier post ]
Sunspots

The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots. The number of sunspots is forecast to reach a peak in July 2025 and recent numbers are higher than expected, as illustrated by the image on the right, from NOAA.

An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C. Recent numbers of sunspots have been high. This confirms the study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference.

 

Joint impact of El Niño and sunspots

In conclusion, the joint impact of a strong El Niño and high sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.65°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature to rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026.

Further developments and feedbacks

A combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise.
An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.
Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right. Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year.
Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which shows that global sea ice extent was 4.6 million km² on January 2, 2023.
The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres.
Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that – when present – consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.


There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as the (currently accelerating) rise of greenhouse gas emissions, falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires.

As said, these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NASA – La Niña Times Three

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center – ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

• Sunspots

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html

• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4

• Tropicaltidbits.comhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Jet Stream

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

Read More

2023 could mark a turning point for the Amazon rainforest

By |2025-01-09T12:14:56+00:00January 1st, 2023|

New political leaders in Brazil and Colombia have promised to protect the rainforest, raising hopes of saving the ecosystem from becoming savannah

From the New Scientist, 31 December 2022

By Luke Taylor

Potaro-river-running-through-the-Amazon

The Potaro river running through the Amazon rainforest in Guyana

After four years of runaway deforestation in the Amazon under Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who takes office on 1 January, could be a decisive turning point.

Lula has pledged to aim for net-zero deforestation – the first Brazilian president to do so. “A standing tree is worth more than thousands of logs,” he said in his victory speech on 31 October. “That is why we will resume the surveillance of the entire Amazon and any illegal activity.”

As well as the restoration of monitoring and surveillance efforts, Lula is proposing several ambitious projects, such as a national climate authority and a sustainable farming scheme. But without a majority in Brazil’s Congress, it is unclear whether he will be able to deliver on these pledges. It will also take time to dislodge the illegal industries that have taken hold in the Amazon, such as gold mining.

Despite the challenges ahead, Lula’s win has made researchers and conservationists more optimistic that the Amazon could be saved, even as there are signs it is hitting a tipping point that would see it transform into savannah. “The election of Lula is a great reason for hope,” says Mark Plotkin, an ethnobotanist and co-founder of non-profit organisation the Amazon Conservation Team.

The impact of Lula’s environmental policy should be magnified by the recent election of eco-conscious governments elsewhere in South America that have campaigned to protect the rainforest.

In Colombia, which is home to some of the Amazon’s most biodiverse regions, President Gustavo Petro is also positioning himself as a regional steward of the rainforest, after taking office in August 2022. Petro is pushing for high-income countries to support South America’s defence of the rainforest and he is also overseeing a total rethink of Colombia’s conservation strategy.

After decades of criminalising farmers who clear the forest for agriculture, the Colombian government now plans to offer them financial support to transition to more sustainable practices, such as harvesting Amazonian fruits from the trees.

The country’s environment minister also proposes diverting all carbon tax revenue directly to conservation schemes and forging an “Amazon Bloc” with other South American nations, so that they will have more leverage to secure international funds.

With Petro, Lula and US president Joe Biden all having been elected after campaigning to protect the Amazon, researchers say they have the political and public support to move forward with plans to conserve and restore the rainforest.

There may also be more opportunities for collaboration between different countries and groups. Bolsonaro blocked conservation in the wider region, not just Brazil, says Martín von Hildebrand, founder of the non-profit organisation Gaia Amazonas. Alliances between NGOs, scientists and Indigenous peoples can now be strengthened and their plans enacted, he says.

Restoring the forest

This could be the year that decades of damage begin to be reversed, says von Hildebrand. The anthropologist is working with researchers and Indigenous communities to draw up a reforestation project that would create a wildlife corridor stretching from the Andes to the Atlantic Ocean. “We’ve been waiting for a long time for political will to implement change and I think we are finally going to get it,” he says.

Carlos Nobre at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, believes that conservationists can capitalise on political support and the growing urgency of climate change to spur efforts towards reforestation.

At the COP27 climate summit in November 2022, Nobre presented a project to restore more than 1 million square kilometres of rainforest that would, he says, “store 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year for decades to come and prevent the Amazon from reaching a tipping point”.

Though the Amazon’s future remains uncertain, the importance of its conservation for climate change will only become more obvious in 2023, says von Hildebrand.

“It’s not only a carbon sink and a haven of biodiversity, but with its flying rivers [currents of water vapour], it’s a water pump for the entire Amazon, the Andes and beyond,” he says. “The forest is absolutely necessary. If we lose the forest, we simply won’t have water in this part of the world.”

Sign up to our free Fix the Planet newsletter to get a dose of climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox, every Thursday

Read More

Wild Winter Weather

By |2025-01-09T09:37:41+00:00December 23rd, 2022|

[ posted earlier at facebook ]

The image on the right shows a forecast of very low temperatures over North America with a temperature of -40 °C / °F highlighted (green circle at center) for December 23, 2022 14:00 UTC.

As the image shows, temperatures over large parts of North America are forecast to be even lower than the temperature at the North Pole.
The combination image below illustrates this further, showing temperatures as low as -50.3°C or -58.6°F in Alaska on December 22, 2022 at 17:00 UTC, while at the same time the temperature at the North Pole was -13.6°C or 7.4°F.
The Jet Stream
The image below shows the Jet Stream (250 hPa) on December 13, 2022, stretched out vertically and reaching the North Pole as well as the South Pole, while sea surface temperature anomalies are as high as 11°C or 19.7°F from 1981-2011 at the green circle.
The Jet Stream used to circumnavigate the globe within a narrow band from West to East (due to the Coriolis Force), and it used to travel at relatively high speed, fuelled by the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.
[ posted earlier at facebook ]
As the above image shows, the Pacific Ocean is currently cooler at the tropics and warmer further to the north (compared to 1981-2011), which narrows this temperature difference and in turn makes the Jet Stream wavier. Accordingly, the Jet Stream is going up high into the Arctic before descending deep down over North America.
The image on the right shows air pressure at sea level on December 22, 2022. High sea surface temperatures make air rise, lowering air pressure at the surface to levels as low as 973 hPa over the Pacific. Conversely, a more wavy Jet Stream enables cooler air to flow from the Arctic to North America, raising air pressure at the surface to levels as high as 1056 hPa.
On December 22, 2022, the Jet Stream reached very high speeds over the Pacific, fuelled by high sea surface temperature anomalies. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over the North Pacific at speeds as high as 437 km/h or 271 mph (with a Wind Power Density of 349.2 kW/m², at the green circle).
The Jet Stream then collides with higher air pressure and moves up into the Arctic, and subsequently descends deep down over North America, carrying along cold air from the Arctic. Distortion of the Jet Stream also results in the formation of circular wind patterns that further accelerate the speed of the Jet Stream.
The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over North America at speeds as high as 366 km/h or 227 mph (green circle). The image also shows high waves in the North Pacific.
La Niña / El Niño
The low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean are in line with the current La Niña.
The fact that such extreme weather events occur while we’re in the depth of a persistent La Niña is worrying. The next El Niño could push up temperatures further, which would hit the Arctic most strongly. This would further narrow the difference between temperatures at the Equator and the North Pole, thus making the Jet Stream more wavy, which also enables warm air to move into the Arctic, further accelerating feedbacks in the Arctic.
The image below, from NOAA, indicates that the next El Niño is likely to emerge soon.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• nullschool
• Jet Stream
• Coriolis Force
• Wind Power Density

• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA – Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)
Read More

The short lifespan of technological civilizations and the future of Homo sapiens

By |2025-01-09T11:55:15+00:00December 17th, 2022|

by Andrew Glikson

In his book ‘Collapse’ (2011) Jared Diamond portrays the fate of societies which Choose to Fail or Succeed. On a larger scale the Fermi’s paradox suggests that advanced technological civilizations may constitute ephemeral entities in the galaxy, destined to collapse over short periods. Such an interpretation of Fermi’s paradox, corroborated by recent terrestrial history, implies that the apparent absence of radio signals from Milky Way planets and beyond may be attributed to an inherently self-destructive nature of civilizations which reached the ability to propagate radio waves, consistent with Carl Sagan’s views. It can be expected therefore that the number of advanced technological societies in the universe will be proportional to their average lifetime, perhaps lasting no more than a few centuries. Inexplicably, the behavior of Homo “sapiens” reveals the reality of Fermi’s paradox, unless humans can wake up in time.

Since the onset of the Neolithic about ~10,000 years ago open-ended combustion of wood, coal, oil, methane and gas for production of steam power and electricity (Figure 1), and of uranium to generate nuclear power, constrain the life expectancy of industrial civilizations through proliferation of greenhouse gases, alteration of the chemistry of the atmosphere and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, testifying to the relevance of Fermi’s paradox in the 20-21 centuries.

Geological and astronomical studies establish Earth is unique among the terrestrial planets in harboring advanced life forms, including colonial life since as early as ~3.5 billion years ago. Should the fate of Homo sapiens be recorded, history would tell that, while the atmosphere was overheating, oceans acidifying and radioactivity rising, humans never ceased to saturate the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, mine uranium, unleash fatal wars and fire rockets at the planets. All the time indulging in sports games and inundating the airwaves with gratuitous words, false promises, misconstrued assumptions and simple lies ─ betraying their future generations and a multitude of species on the only haven of life known in the solar system.

Fig. 1. A combined night lights image of Earth signifying global civilization. NASA

In a new paper titled ‘Global warming in the pipeline’, Hansen et al. (2022) state: “glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO₂ with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m² larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2xCO₂ forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone — after slow feedbacks operate — is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds … A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade.”

The inevitable consequence is a shift in the position of the Earth’s climate zones, a decline in the Earth’s albedo (a climatologically significant ~0.5 W/m² decrease over two decades), a rise in greenhouse gases at a geologically unprecedented rate of 2-3 ppm/year), acidification of the oceans (by about 26 percent), receding ice sheets, rising sea levels (~20 cm since 1900), changes in vegetation, forests and soils, a shift in state of the climate and mass extinction, with humans are driving around one million species to extinction.

For longer than 50 years few were aware that a rise in atmospheric CO₂ on the scale of ~100 ppm CO₂ at the annual rate of 2 – 3 ppm per year, could lead to the unhabitability of large parts of Earth (The Uninhabitable Earth, by David Wallace-Wells) (Figure 2A). Now we find ourselves surrounded by the consequences ─ hydrocarbon saturation of air and water, runaway global heating, acidification, dissemination of micro-plastics, habitat destruction, radioactive overload, proliferation of chemical weapons ─ In confirmation of the reality of Fermi’s Paradox.

But just at the time the world was increasingly overwhelmed by extreme weather events, severe fires and floods, climate scientists were increasingly ignored, replaced by politicians, bureaucrats, economists, strategists and vested interests ignorant of the basic laws of physics and of the principles which control the atmosphere-ocean system. Policies and promises guided by the science have been betrayed and meaningful mitigation and adaptation negated by the opening of new coal mines and gas fields. Cold war strategies violating the United Nation charter were depleting the resources required for mitigation of the looming climate catastrophe. Within a blink of geological eye, at a rate unprecedented since the extinction of the dinosaurs, large regions of Earth were becoming increasingly uninhabitable for a multitude of species, surpassing 350 ppm CO₂ and approaching Miocene (5.3 – 23.0 Ma)-like conditions (Figure 2B). All along humans continued busily developing a veritable doomsday machine near 1300 nuclear warheads-strong threatening release within seconds.
Fig. 2. (A) Upper Holocene temperatures. (B). The Middle Miocene long-term continental (brown) and marine (blue) temperature change. Red arrow points to the present (2022) average global temperature of 13.9°C NOAA.
That humans are capable of committing the most horrendous crimes upon each other, on other species and on nature, including mass exterminations, has been demonstrated during the 20th century by the Nazi concentration camps and by genocidal conflicts such as in Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Rwanda, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Ukraine ─ the list goes on …
Fig. 3. Tsar Bomba, exploded above Novaya Zemlya
The ultimate step toward the Fermi’s paradox has been reached following nuclear experiments in New Mexico, Novaya Zemlya (Figure 3), the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the rising prospects of a nuclear war, with consequent firestorms, radiation from fallout, a nuclear winter, and electromagnetic pulses looming ever greater. According to a paper by Robock and Toon (2012) ‘Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war’, a thermonuclear war could lead to the end of modern civilization, due to a long-lasting nuclear winter and the destruction of crops. In one model the average temperature of Earth during a nuclear winter, where black smoke from cities and industries rise into the upper stratosphere, lowers global temperatures by 7 – 8° Celsius for several years.

As stated by Hansen et al. (2012): “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.

A nuclear war in the background of carbon saturated atmosphere can only lead to extreme damage to the life support systems of the planet. The propensity of “sapiens” to genocide and ecocide, are hardly masked by the prevailing Orwellian language of politicians in the absence of meaningful action to avert the demise of the biosphere as we know it. Whereas the ultimate consequences of global heating are likely to occur within a century, including temperature polarities including heat waves and regional cooling of ocean regions by ice melt flow from Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (Gikson 2019), a nuclear war on the scale of the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) can erupt on a time scale of minutes …

On July 16, 1945, witnessing the atomic test at the Trinity site, New Mexico, Robert Oppenheimer, the chief nuclear scientist (Figure 4), cited the Hindu scripture of Shiva from the Bhagavad Gita: “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. Then, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything, except for man’s way of thinking, and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”.

Andrew Glikson

A/Professor Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

16 December 2022
 

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

Read More

Antarctic sea ice in rapid decline

By |2025-01-09T09:41:42+00:00December 16th, 2022|

Earlier this year, on February 25, Antarctic sea ice extent was at an all-time record low of 1.924 million km², as the above image shows. Throughout the year, Antarctic sea ice extent has been low. On December 14, 2022, Antarctic sea ice was merely 9.864 million km² in extent. Only in 2016 was Antarctic sea ice extent lower at that time of year, and – importantly – 2016 was a strong El Niño year.

The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we’re still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon.

Meanwhile, ocean heat content keeps rising due to high levels of greenhouse gases, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Rising ocean heat causes sea ice to melt from below, resulting in less sea ice, which in turn means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and more sunlight gets absorbed as heat in the ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop that further speeds up sea ice loss.

The currently very rapid decline in sea ice concentration around Antarctica is illustrated by the animation of Climate Reanalyzer images on the right, showing Antarctic sea ice on November 16, November 29 and December 15, 2022.

In 2012, a research team led by Jemma Wadham studied Antarctica, concluding that an amount of 21,000 Gt or billion tonnes or petagram (1Pg equals 10¹⁵g) of organic carbon is buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet, as discussed in an earlier post.

The potential amount of methane hydrate and free methane gas beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet could be up to 400 billion tonnes.
The predicted shallow depth of these potential reserves also makes them more susceptible to climate forcing than other methane hydrate reserves on Earth, describes the news release.

“We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe for humanity. We need to take notice right now. It is already happening. This is not a wait-and-see situation anymore,” Jemma Wadham said more recently.

Ominously, high concentrations of methane have been recorded over Antarctica recently. The image below shows methane as recorded by the Metop-B satellite on November 28, 2022 pm at 399 mb.

The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NSIDC – Interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• NOAA – ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA – ocean heat content
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/index.html

• Climate Reanalyzer sea ice concentration
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=seaice-snowc&ortho=7&wt=1

• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica – Press release University of Bristol (2012)
https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2012/8742.html

• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica – by Jemma Wadham et al. (2012)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11374

• A new frontier in climate change science: connections between ice sheets, carbon and food webs

• Metop-B satellite readings

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Read More

Politicians for sale

By |2025-01-09T12:00:50+00:00December 12th, 2022|

Are politicians for sale?

How can it be measured whether politicians are for sale and to what extent this occurs?

One measure of how much looters and polluters are buying politicians could be this: How fast is methane accelerating?

Rise in methane and rise in temperature
The rise in methane is vitally important, given methane’s potential to rapidly push up temperatures.

Arguably the most important metric related to climate change is surface temperature on land, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The image was created with a July 16, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots and shows that the February 2016 (land only) anomaly from 1886-1915 was 2.94°C or 5.292°F.

Extinction

Land-only anomalies are important. After all, most people live on land, where temperatures are rising even faster than they are rising globally, and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis in earlier post.

Note that in the above plot, anomalies are measured versus 1886-1915, which isn’t pre-industrial. The image raises questions as to what the temperature rise would look like when using a much earlier base, and how much temperatures could rise over the next few years.

What can be done about it?

The next question is: What can be done about it? To avoid politicians getting bought by looters and polluters, action on climate change is best implemented locally, with Local People’s Courts ensuring that implementation is science-based.

Conclusions
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and posts at Arctic-news.blogspot.com
Links
• Human Extinction by 2025?
• NASA customized analysis plots

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Pre-industrial

Read More
Go to Top