Originally published on
by firstname.lastname@example.org (Sam Carana) at Arctic News
September 2021 was the second warmest September on record, after September 2020, according to NASA, Copernicus and James Hansen, despite the cooling effect of the current La Niña. Above NASA image shows that the Arctic Ocean was hit severely by high temperatures.
|[ from earlier post ]|
- The green trend is based on unadjusted NASA data (1951-1980 base).
- The lilac trend is based on data adjusted by 0.79°C for a 1750 base, for higher polar anomalies and for ocean air temperatures. The lilac trend shows that the 1.5°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 3°C could be crossed well before 2050.
- The red trend is based on data adjusted by 1.28°C, adding an extra 0.49°C to the lilac data for a 3480 BC base. The red trend shows that the 2°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 5°C anomaly could crossed by 2060.
Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle, and they are looking stronger than forecast, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.
Furthermore, the next El Niño could raise surface temperatures significantly. The image below indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.
Such feedbacks can result in collapse of Arctic sea ice and eruption of huge quantities of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, further driving up the temperature rise abruptly, as illustrated by the blue trend.
|[ from earlier post ]|
The rise in nitrous oxide levels up the April 2020 is illustrated image on the right, from an earlier post.
Perhaps even more frightening is the situation regarding methane, as illustrated by the combination image below. The MetOp-2 satellite recorded some terrifying methane levels recently. On October 14, 2021 pm, a peak methane level of 4354 ppb was recorded at 293 mb (left panel), while a mean level of 2068 ppb was recorded at 367 mb (right panel). The Images show only a partial cover of the globe, so there may be some problems with this satellite, yet it could be an ominous sign of things to come.
• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
• Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26)
• IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways (SR1.5)
• MetOp satellites
• September Temperature Update & COP 26 – 14 October 2021 – by James Hansen and Makiko Sato
• NOAA Sunspots
• A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks – by Hanqin Tian et al. (2020)
• NOAA Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?
• Climate Plan