Originally published on
by at Arctic News
1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded
One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC’s use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn’t pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for.
Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1° for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C.
The rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise.
|[ from an earlier post ]|
At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post.
Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever.
|[ from the post When will we die? ]|
A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity.
The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future.
Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting to work by car over roads.
|[ from earlier post ]|
Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking.
The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
• IPCC AR6 WGII – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)
• Clouds feedback
• When Will We Die?
• Accelerating Methane Rise
• Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared – by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022)
• The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars – by Neta Crawford (2021)
• Which policy can help EVs most?
• Climate Plan