Originally published on

by at Arctic News

Earth’s energy imbalance, defined as the absorbed solar radiation minus the net outgoing longwave radiation, is arguably the most important metric related to climate change, argue Kevin Trenberth et al. in a recent article.

One could also argue that the most important metric related to climate change is the crossing of 3°C above pre-industrial by monthly mean surface temperatures on land, as illustrated by the above image created with NASA content. After all, most people live on land and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, according to a 2019 analysis in an earlier post

A temperature rise of 3°C is unlikely to stop there, even if all activities by humans would stop, including their emissions.

Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in June 2022 was 420.99 ppm, a joint record high with May 2022, as illustrated by the above image. Carbon dioxide levels this high are likely to keep adding ocean heat for some time, especially since additional emissions will result from decomposing biomass and fires globally, while the sulfate masking effect will fall away. 

Furthermore, we’re moving into a new El Niño, which could coincide with a peak in sunspots in 2025, as illustrated by the image on the right and discussed in the post Cataclysmic Alignment.

All this looks set to contribute to a further rise in temperature, with the danger of causing ocean temperatures to increase to the point where there will be massive eruptions of seafloor methane contributing to the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed, which in itself could push up temperatures by a further 8°C and cause extinction of most life on Earth, as the 2019 analysis warns.
Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as also discussed at the Extinction page.

In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly and drive humans into extinction as early as in 2025. Temperatures could continue to rise afterwards, and drive most life on Earth into extinction soon thereafter, making it the more important to do the right thing now and help avoid the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan at: 

Links

• A perspective on climate change from Earth’s energy imbalance – by Kevin Trenberth et al. 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74

• NASA – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis 

• NOAA – Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa, Hawaii 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html

• NOAA – ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Cataclysmic Alignment 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html